Calculator

Pipeline coverage calculator

The 3x pipeline coverage heuristic is rarely the right target. The real coverage ratio you need is simply 1 / your realised close rate from qualified pipeline. Pull two quarters of CRM data, compute the rate, drop it in below.

Coverage target

3.6x

Required qualified pipeline

£3,571,429

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What the calculation means

Coverage = 1 / realised close rate. If your team's close rate from qualified pipeline is 28 percent, your coverage target is 3.6x. If it's 18 percent, your coverage target is 5.6x. If it's 42 percent, it's 2.4x.

The 3x rule of thumb only works for teams with close rates around 33 percent. Mid-market UK SaaS is commonly 20-40 percent; enterprise is commonly 15-25 percent; SMB is commonly 35-50 percent. Using 3x across all three structurally over-pipelines SMB and under-pipelines enterprise.

How to compute your realised close rate

  1. Pick your qualification gate (the CRM stage you use as the "qualified pipeline" threshold).
  2. Pull every opportunity that entered that stage in quarters Q-2 through Q-5 (so each has had at least one quarter for close-window).
  3. Count how many of those opportunities closed-won within their target close-quarter (or +1 quarter, depending on how you forecast).
  4. Realised close rate = won / entered.
  5. Coverage target = 1 / realised close rate.
  6. Recompute every two quarters; close rates drift.

Where the calculator under-counts

Coverage is a leading indicator, not a forecast. It works for Q+1 and Q+2 horizon planning. It does not work as a current-quarter forecast; that should be built from named-deal probability.

Coverage also under-weights deal-size variance. A pipeline of 30 deals at 100k pounds each behaves differently from 3 deals at 1m pounds each, even at the same total ARR; concentrated pipelines need higher coverage ratios to hit the same expected outcome.

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